One in every of Wall Avenue’s long-time bulls believes a doubtlessly stomach-churning pullback is unfolding out there paying homage to the mayhem of May.
Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer blames an excessive amount of enthusiasm surrounding all-time highs and overbought situations.
However do not worry. He contends a pullback will create a stable shopping for alternative.
“It’s kind of like it was at the end of April. On April 30, we made the same kind of call, ” the agency’s chief market strategist informed CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Monday. “Nobody expected that, and all of the sudden you got a 6.5% or so decline from peak. We think it’ll be a little bit less than that. But just similar setup.”
The S&P 500 sharply rebounded from the May sell-off in June. Weeks later, the index was rallying to new highs.
This time, Dwyer speculates the pullback started final Tuesday, a day after the S&P 500 hit its all-time excessive of three,017. The index is off 1% since then. Based mostly on his calculations, the S&P has one other 4% or so to fall.
“Even though you’re within 1% of an all-time high in the market, only 36% of stocks are above their 10-day moving average,” Dwyer mentioned. “And, you’ve seen some of my intermediate-term indicators roll over.”
His year-end S&P 500 goal of two,950 implies shares will not muster a second-half rally.
Nevertheless, his 2020 year-end goal of three,350 exhibits a greater than 12% achieve from present ranges. In a observe this week, he mentioned his basic core thesis stays constructive due to a simple Federal Reserve, low inflation, constructive financial development and valuation growth.
“Rather than chase the tape, I’d rather buy it on a little bit of a dip,” mentioned Dwyer, who’s advising traders to focus on offensive teams together with industrials, financials, shopper discretionary, expertise and communication providers.